This addition of Match Day Dividends to the Index last season has helped add an extra edge to an already fantastic product. An edge that made it more accessible to more people than ever before and as a result has seen it grow at a pace that only Adam Cole could have dreamt of.
When the scoring matrix for Match Day Rankings was first introduced, there was a rush to pick up players who may score well in the upcoming season. Traders were looking to jump on some hidden gems nice and early to reap the benefits in the months to come.
A few accounts, namely @FootballIndexAS, did some great work mining data from the previous season to help give traders an idea of players who may have had a solid average score.
Traders started throwing money into players with these high averages and it wasn’t long before a debate, which is still unsettled today, engulfed the Football Index communit: Which is more important? A good average or players capable of hitting peak scores?
We’ve had lots of great analysis on player averages across a number of Twitter accounts dedicated to providing content about Football Index, however, there’s been a lack of information about a player’s ability to hit peak scores.
One reason it’s difficult to analyse is because people have different views on what a peak score is. Some will default to 200, some say 180 and some will have different scores for different positions.
Over the course of the season, I’ve been tracking the winning Match Day Ranking scores and I’ve tried to come up with what I believe to be a fair score to use as a benchmark.
I’ve looked at scores from when the squad was opened up on November 1st from Double and Treble game days and worked out the average winning score. I omitted Single game day winning scores as they tend to be quite low and skew the data.
Based on this I came up with the following scores to use in the analysis (which will probably cause another debate):
My view is that if a player regularly scores above these benchmarks, they’re always going to be within a good chance of winning some Match Day Dividends.
This is the first in a series of articles to be published by Football INDEX and this one will describe the nature of my analysis (please, it’s not that boring, keep reading) to help you get the most out of it when the juicy detail gets shared with you all.
First of all, this analysis uses data from the start of the Premier League season through to the last game of the 2017/2018 season, the Champions League final. World Cup data is not used as it does not accurately reflect a player’s ability to rack up a decent score at his club.
Through the use of data from @footballindexed and the great service they provide, I managed to get together the number of times key players on the Index reached or exceeded these peak scores.
I haven’t included every player in this analysis. I’ve included those who brought in some Match Day Dividends last year or play for one of the top 30 clubs going by their total Match Day Dividend yield from last season.
After counting up the peak scores, I’ve taken the amount of games they started last season and divided the two metrics to give a ‘Peak Scores per Start’ metric. For me, this is the best way to understand who hits the scores most frequently.
In my opinion, it’s important to analyse in this way as two players may have hit a peak score the same amount of times, but if one started 20 games last season, potentially due to injury, and the other started 40 games, then the player who started less games is arguably better.
I decided to omit any players from outside of the five leagues. So you won’t see the likes of Gelson Martins or Vitinho in my analysis as I felt it wasn’t fair to compare these players to those with a much bigger data pool.
I also decided to omit scores from players from their previous clubs if they moved in January. Why? Because in my opinion, the club you play for plays a huge factor in the scores you hit, so including Philippe Coutinho’s two peak scores at Liverpool wouldn’t have given an accurate representation of his current status at Barca.
The last thing to bear in mind is that I’ve got hold of the amount of Domestic League and European games the players started last season, but they may not have been on Football INDEX since the start of the season.
The analysis isn’t perfect, most rarely is, but I believe these insights will help traders make more educated choices if you would like to go down the route of buying players who have a history of hitting peak scores.
Keep an eye out for the next article, which will feature Goalkeepers and Defenders.
If you have any questions you can find me on Twitter: @footyindexLDN.
Get your portfolio ready for the return of Match Day Dividends now: https://www.footballindex.co.uk/stockmarket/team