In the blink of an eye, the first season of Match Day Dividends has been and gone and what a year it has been. Although many were sceptical initially, it has proven to be nothing but a success, following in the footsteps of every other major feature change made by the company since its launch. The Match Day Rankings have added another dimension to the product and incorporated a lot of the thrill associated with winning and losing in regular betting. Not only are you interested in your players and the matches they’re involved in but also every other games going on that your players are competing against for dividends, until this season you would never of caught me watching 8pm mid-table French football on a Sunday evening, whereas now it’s almost automatic.
Looking forward to next season, we now have the luxury of a season’s worth of data to help in planning a portfolio and evaluating how likely certain players are to win dividends. Of course, in football anything can happen, but this season has shown us there are some very good tell tail signs. We also have to consider the possibility of one season wonders, transfers impact and other externalities but in general the data we now have is very useful. Therefore over the next few weeks I’m going to produce a series of articles, looking at how the dividends and scores were distributed last season, as well as how prices changed to allow you to make your own inferences as to how next season will go, including a few of my own insights along the way.
In this first article, I’m going to look mainly at the price changes between the start of the season (11th of August 2017) to the end of the season (26thof May 2018) to give those who haven’t been on the platform for all of that period an idea of the changes we’ve witnesses and allow those who have been around more than a year, the chance to feel nostalgic over the fact they never piled their mortgages into Neymar.
Back on the opening day, the Index still consisted of only 200 players with IPOs beginning in the weeks to follow. At that point, the average price of the top 200 was £1.33, with Lukaku sitting top of the Index at £6.71 after his United move had been finalised. Jump ahead nine months and of those 200 players, 198 remain on the Index, with John Terry and Buffon no longer being on the platform. Of those original 198, 58 decreased in value, whilst 139 increased and Kelechi Iheanacho remained the same. Overall, the average price of these players increased £0.57 to £1.90. This 48% capital appreciation shows how impressive the growth has been this year without even considering dividend returns.
Looking at these players more specifically, 78 players outperformed the market average. The largest ROI belongs to Germany’s Timo Werner, who although may be stagnating now, he managed an impressive £3.09 increase from an initial price of £0.92 thanks to Leipzig’s Europa League campaign, transfer links and leading the line for Germany at the World Cup. In Monetary terms, it’s no surprise Neymar saw the biggest increase with a huge £9.22 increase.
Looking at the other side of the coin, it’s reassuring to know that the falls were nowhere near as large as some of the rises, with only two players (Zlatan and Rooney) falling more than 50% in value, both of which had very valid reasons for their loss in value. The majority of the other large fallers came as part of the natural cycle of recently transferred players finding their real value after the media dried up. This is still a common trend today, as we’ve already seen the likes of Fabinho and Fred fall after their moves were completed, making it something all users should be aware of.
Of those 198 in the market in August, only 96 were still in the top 200 in May thanks to the IPO’s that have been taking place through the year. Many of these new players have hugely impacted the market and become big successes in the performance.
The highest priced player come May 2018 that had been introduced to the market since the start of the season was Lyon’s Nabil Fekir, who managed An incredible 1696% increase of £4.24 from his IPO price of 25p in September. Plenty of other European prospects managed similar rises after impressive campaigns with the likes of Milinkovic-Savic and Leon Bailey rising £3 and £2.45 respectively. With those kinds of returns, its no wonder some traders are quick to jump on any player who has even a glimmer of hope of becoming the next big thing.
So when you add in the newbies, the average of player price of the top 200 players on the closing day of the season was a remarkable £2.39 making a tracker 200 (if it was a thing) 80% more expensive than it was when the season kicked off. Speaking of trackers, had you had you of been looking for passive investment in August, trackers would have rewarded you rather nicely.
Unsurprisingly, the Tracker 10 performed the best, earning any investor a 41.28% ROI on every £46.83 outlay. Not bad considering that included Lukaku who actually fell 37% along with three other fallers and once again, that’s before even considering dividends, which I’ll come back to in a future article.
Overall, I think the article gives an impression of how incredible the capital appreciation has been over the first season of performance dividend especially when compared to pre-performance times when many of these players were worthless. Arguably, the fact that many of these players were worth so little before the season has played a major part in the huge ROI’s, however, I doubt that will be enough to stop next seasons returns looking any less attractive.
In the articles to follow, I will be looking at dividend returns, focusing mainly on the performance aspect, before linking it together with the price increases, average performance scores and other factors to look out for next season.
Time to update your portfolio? Let’s look at the market here: